Recession dating game
The aim of this article is to divide the countries from the G7 group in leaders and followers in respect to the business cycle and specifically to the crisis.
Markov switch models are employed in MATLAB through the MS_Regress to identify the turning points in a seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series covering the time span 1991-2012.
“The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that’s where we’ll continue to focus.” The NBER's seven-member Business Cycle Dating Committee met Friday and determined that economic activity peaked last December and has essentially been declining since then.
Payroll employment peaked that month and has declined every month since then, with the economy shedding some 1.2 million jobs, the committee noted in a statement on the NBER Web site.
The recent economic crisis has set the scene for new inquires about the nature of this elusive phenomenon from both academics and practitioners.